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In the political scenario being formed in Western UP, the opposition is proving weak in challenging the BJP in its most important constituency. The area of Western UP has always been fertile for anti-BJP votes. If you do the calculations keeping in mind the voters of Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, you will find that it was easy to defeat BJP here. But if BJP is looking strong here too then the opposition’s strategy can only be blamed for this. Overall, from the circumstances emerging in the last 2 weeks, it seems that BJP has won the first round of Lok Sabha elections in Western UP. Let us see how the opposition is shooting itself in the foot.
1- SP is confused in deciding the candidate, till now dozens of candidates have been changed.
The first phase of voting for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections is to be held on April 19. That means in total only about twenty days are left and Samajwadi Party is confused about its candidate. The confusion that Samajwadi Party has shown regarding the names of candidates for Rampur and Moradabad Lok Sabha seats is showing the internal weakness of Samajwadi Party. When the party is winning, the leadership does not tolerate pressure from anyone. But the way Akhilesh Yadav is stuck in a dilemma regarding his candidates under the pressure of Azam Khan, it shows that his hold among the public has diminished. On the last day of filing nominations i.e. 27th March, two candidates from both the seats have filed their nomination papers declaring themselves as the authorized candidates of the party. This is the condition of those Lok Sabha seats where the party’s candidates had won in 2019. This story is not just of Moradabad and Rampur. So far, candidates have been changed on many seats including Badaun, Misrikh and Gautam Buddha Nagar in Western UP. First Dharmendra Yadav was given ticket from Badaun and then he was sent to Azamgarh. Shivpal got the ticket from Badaun but he wants his son to contest from here. Similarly, the ticket was changed about 3 times on Mishrikh seat. Similarly, tickets have been changed in Binnaur, Meerut and Gautam Buddha Nagar. It is so terrible when the competition is with an organized fight like BJP. Akhilesh is still living in the old times when there was competition with Congress.
2-Why did SP-BSP keep distance from Muslim candidates?
The way Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party have distanced themselves from Muslim candidates is worth considering. Because the base of both these parties in UP is Muslim voters. The base of Samajwadi Party has been Muslim and Yadav votes. Despite this, it is seen that Samajwadi Party has fielded Muslim candidates only on 4 seats, while BSP has fielded Muslim candidates on 7 seats. The question is that in many seats in Western UP, there are 30 to 45 percent Muslims, what could be the point of giving Hindu candidates from there also. Why do all parties want to become BJP? BJP has declared that it has not fielded any Muslim candidate from anywhere except Kerala. Not only Samajwadi Party, BSP has also not fielded any Muslim candidate on seats like Meerut, Bijnor, Muzaffarnagar, Baghpat, Bareilly, Shravasti etc. Everyone feels that if he does this, his Hindu votes may get scattered. SP-BSP are losing their core in the fight with BJP.
3-BSP put forward a thorn and RLD changed the game.
In the 2019 elections, BSP and Samajwadi Party had jointly contested the Lok Sabha elections. The result was that BJP had to lose many seats in UP. Bahujan Samaj Party had managed to win a total of 10 seats and Samajwadi Party had managed to win a total of 5 seats. But this time the atmosphere is different. BSP is contesting the elections alone this time. Other RLDs are also with BJP. Due to this, the opposition also lost the support of Jat voters. Obviously the matter has once again become triangular. It is true that BSP is in its worst phase, yet it would be a mistake to consider it weak. It is said that even in a dead-end situation, 12 percent of BSP’s votes have not gone anywhere. Anyway, the number of Dalit population is good in many seats in the West. When they find a strong candidate, then BSP has been doing wonders. Looking at the way BSP has declared Muslim candidates from Saharanpur, Amroha and Kannauj, no one will deny that the battle for Western UP will be fought once again. It’s going to be triangular. And this triangular fight has always been beneficial for BJP.
4-Badaun double murder case
The Badaun double murder case has done for BJP in Western UP the same thing as the Kanhaiya Lal Darji murder case did in Rajasthan. In Badaun, two children were killed by two brothers named Sajid and Javed, who ran a tailor shop in front of their house. In which Sajid was encountered by UP Police. Javed has also been arrested. By opposing the encounter, Samajwadi Party has given an opportunity to polarize Hindu votes. Obviously, BJP will capitalize on this in a tremendous way in the Lok Sabha elections.
5-The opposition has also failed to tame Chandrashekhar alias Ravana.
The influence of Chandrashekhar alias Ravana, even if partial, cannot be denied on many seats in West UP. Earlier there was speculation that Chandrashekhar would get a seat from Nagina Lok Sabha seat from the India Alliance. It was expected that Chandrashekhar could be declared the India Alliance candidate with the support of SP on Nagina Lok Sabha seat. But Samajwadi Party announced the name of Manoj Kumar from here. This shocking decision of SP chief Akhilesh Yadav was considered a big blow for Chandrashekhar. But now Azad Samaj Party President Chandrashekhar Ravan has filed his nomination from Nagina reserved seat. BJP has made Om Kumar its candidate from here. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, this seat had gone to BSP’s account, Girish Chandra had become MP from here. It is possible that Chandrashekhar Ravan may not win the election from this seat, but it is certain that being with Azad Samaj Party will definitely create an environment for Dalit votes.
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