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There is an uproar in the grand alliance government of Bihar after Nitish Kumar’s statement on nepotism. Lalu Yadav’s daughter Niharika Acharya has targeted Nitish Kumar fiercely by tweeting. At such a time, it is understood that the duo of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav is going to break very soon. On the other hand, by posthumously awarding Bharat Ratna to former Bihar Chief Minister Karpoori Thakur, the NDA government at the Center has taken the lead over the leaders of the India Alliance for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Karpoori Thakur has been the messiah of social justice in Bihar. Reservation for backward classes was first started in his government. Not only this, he also started giving separate reservation to EBC and OBC.
It is being said that as a counter to the announcement by the grand alliance government of Bihar to conduct caste census and give 75 percent reservation to the backward classes, the BJP government has decided to give Bharat Ratna to Jannayak Karpuri Thakur. So should it be assumed that due to this one decision of BJP, BJP is going to overpower the pair of Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav in Bihar? So should it also be understood that BJP no longer needs Nitish Kumar? Has BJP automatically become capable of winning all 40 Lok Sabha seats for BJP in Bihar? Let us find answers to all these questions.
Caste politics in Bihar
On October 2 last year, the Bihar government had released the caste survey data. According to this, the total population of Bihar is about 13 crores and the largest number of them belongs to the extremely backward class. This is about 36 percent of the total population of the state. The second largest population belongs to the backward classes, who constitute 27.12 percent of the population in the state. Together, the backward class population in the state is around 64 percent. Taking the survey as the basis, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar increased the scope of reservation in the state to 75 percent.
Till now, a large part of the OBC vote bank of Bihar has been with the parties of Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar. After this, with the caste survey and then increasing the scope of reservation, it is certain that the penetration of Nitish and Lalu in this section would have improved further.
It is obvious that the Central Government is trying to tap the vote bank of backward castes by giving Bharat Ratna to Karpoori Thakur. Although the leaders of RJD and JDU have always been demanding to give Bharat Ratna to Karpoori Thakur, BJP has tried to make the most backward castes its own by giving Bharat Ratna.
Jitan Ram Manjhi and Chirag Paswan are currently with NDA in Bihar as Dalit leaders. BJP state president Samrat Chaudhary also comes from a backward caste. When the BJP government was formed in Bihar with Nitish Kumar, both the Deputy Chief Ministers were also from backward castes. The figures of the last Lok Sabha elections in Bihar show that RJD was not successful in winning even a single Lok Sabha seat. It is clear that BJP had got the votes of backward and extremely backward people. Yes, one thing is worth noting that last time Nitish Kumar was with BJP who is still with the Grand Alliance.
BJP had been trying for a long time to crack the caste census.
The Grand Alliance had long ago taken the lead over BJP by raising the issue of caste census in Bihar. Congress has also recently played a big role in making the issue of caste census a national issue. Rahul Gandhi was raising the issue of caste census in almost every meeting during the Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan assembly elections. But the Bihar government has conducted the caste census first and has also increased the reservation on that basis. Based on the implementation of the caste survey, the government has announced to give about Rs 2 lakh to every household for self-employment of about 95 lakh poorest people of the state.
Although BJP never opposed the caste census, it also did not promise to conduct the caste census. The Bihar BJP unit has always supported the demand for caste census in Bihar. Even in the Supreme Court, the Central Government never opposed the decision of Bihar Government on caste census. Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya in Uttar Pradesh, Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis in Maharashtra, Chief Minister of Assam Himanta Biswa Sarma etc. have always supported the caste census.
BJP was preparing to implement the Rohini Commission report as a counter to the caste census. It is said that in this report, it has been recommended to distribute 27 percent reservation to the backward classes. But this division is already there in Bihar, hence BJP was not going to get any special benefit from it, perhaps this is the reason why action is not being taken on Rohini Commission yet.
Is BJP capable of winning all 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar without Nitish?
It is necessary for BJP to win all 40 seats of Bihar. Political analysts believe that to form the government at the Center in 2024, BJP will have to win 37 out of 40 seats in Bihar. Last time, Nitish Kumar and late Ram Vilas Paswan were also with BJP, hence NDA had won all the seats in Bihar except one seat. BJP got 17 seats, 16 seats went to JD(U) and LJP got 6 seats. Now this has become impossible due to Nitish Kumar changing sides. This is the reason why NDA is in a dilemma whether to bring Nitish along or not.
If we look at some recent elections, BJP has emerged as the party getting the highest votes, its vote share has been 20 percent in the assembly elections and 25 percent in the Lok Sabha elections. RJD’s vote share was 23 percent in the last assembly elections but it declined by a few points in the Lok Sabha elections. JDU’s vote share has been around 15 percent in both the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. The vote share of other parties has been less than 10 percent, such as 7-9 percent of Congress, 4-5 percent of Left parties and 6 percent of LJP. In this way, the Grand Alliance has got a vote share of 45 percent and the NDA has got a vote share of 35 percent. However, with the entry of Upendra Kushwaha in NDA and award of Bharat Ratna to Karpuri Thakur, the situation is rising for extremely backward people to come in favor of BJP. But BJP does not want to take any risk in the Lok Sabha elections. This is the reason why Nitish becomes important for BJP.
BJP no longer needs Nitish Kumar?
It is being said about Nitish Kumar that he can turn around at any time and come back with NDA. He is also waiting in NDA. BJP also needs a big face in Bihar politics. Even NDA does not want to contest Lok Sabha elections without Nitish Kumar. But the local unit of Bihar BJP is opposing it. Local leaders of Bihar BJP believe that BJP alone is capable of defeating the Grand Alliance in the state. The situation will weaken with the arrival of Nitish Kumar. In fact, BJP will have to lose the anti-incumbency votes coming with Nitish Kumar. Along with this, the votes of the backward classes which have been getting in the name of Nitish can also be given to BJP. Because in Bihar, even the most backward people have been oppressed under Lalu rule. Extremely backward voters know that if they vote for the alliance then Nitish Kumar will not become the next Chief Minister. If the Grand Alliance wins, Tejashwi Yadav has to become the Chief Minister. Therefore, it is quite possible that the Nitish supporting votes of the extremely backward classes will go with BJP. The support of this class towards BJP is continuously increasing due to award of Bharat Ratna to Karpoori Thakur, proper representation of backward classes and Dalits etc. in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. This is the reason why Nitish Kumar is continuously giving such messages that he is ready to join NDA but BJP is not showing much enthusiasm right now. Maybe BJP is not showing much enthusiasm because it wants Nitish Kumar to join NDA on BJP’s terms instead of its own terms.
BJP is getting victory even without Nitish
The result of Kudhani by-election is being considered a big victory for BJP after Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar broke the alliance with BJP in August this year. The results of the by-election were a big blow for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Nitish Kumar had campaigned vigorously for the party’s candidate on this seat. During the election campaign in Kudhni, Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav had also made an emotional appeal to the voters to vote for the Janata Dal United candidate and said that he would support the Grand Alliance in the by-election. I want to give the good news of the victory to my father and RJD supremo Lalu Prasad. Tejashwi also cited his father Lalu Yadav’s kidney transplant operation in Singapore, yet there was no impact on the voters.
After Nitish Kumar’s exit from the NDA alliance, this was the first election in Bihar where Janata Dal United was in direct competition with BJP. In Kudhani by-election, Bharatiya Janata Party has defeated the candidate of Janata Dal United by a margin of 3632 votes. BJP candidate Kedar Prasad Gupta secured 76648 votes while JDU candidate Manoj Kushwaha secured 73016 votes. Earlier in November, by-elections were held in Gopalganj and Mokama where BJP had a direct contest with RJD on both the seats. BJP had retained the Gopalganj seat by defeating RJD, while RJD had won the Mokama seat. Nishad leader Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), which had fielded Neelabh Kumar of Bhumihar caste from this seat, was trying to divide the Bhumihar votes. It failed and BJP got victory. Neelabh has got 9988 votes.
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